Jameis Winston – NFL Personality Analysis Method

NFL Draft 2016 – Our Quick Comments on the Top QBs

Our unique research of NFL QB mental makeup has revealed that temperament makeup is linked to winning Super Bowls and is more important than physical ability such as 40-yard dash time. While we could produce long reports about the temperament makeup, his ideal system ad environment and historical precedent…publicly we will only provide a list of quick comments regarding the 2016 NFL draft QBs.

For an overview of our method, read our analysis of NFL players.

We love Carson Wentz but if you are picking a QB late here’s our top QB VALUE picks of the NFL 2016 draft based on one factor – a historical comparison of temperament makeup to past NFL QBs (these rankings do not account for football skills such as, “Can he make all the throws?”). Practically a team would want an analysis of a QB’s arm strength, pro-style offense knowledge and temperament. You want a QB that has all 3 such as Carson Wentz. Our temperament ‘value’ picks:

1 – Nate Sudfeld (Risk – huge potential or bust). Temperament equal, Brett Favre.

2 – Joel Stave. Same temperament as Tony Romo, which means he has the mental goods to function as an NFL QB. Also Joel is clutch and he WINS. Major draft value pick, like Romo. Negative – could get lost in his head, overthink things, needs to have fun to enjoy and stay loose.

3 – Jeff Driskel/Cody Kessler – if you have the right staff. (risky but potential starting QB).

Other QBs – Our Draft Comment

Carson Wentz’s – Draft? Yes! Same Temperament Makeup type as Eli Manning. #1 QB.

Jared Goff – Yes – Same mental makeup type as Dave Krieg but Wentz is better.

Paxton Lynch – Maybe – but not in 1st round (he has no top QBs comparisons of the same mental makeup type). This QB could be a bust and his situation requires more research.

Jacoby Brissett – Maybe. No exact matches but could be a basic NFL starter.

Kevin Hogan – Maybe – No exact matches in top QB list. Our guess: but could be a basic fill-in/backup NFL QB.

Jeff Driskel/Cody Kessler – Maybe, if you have the right staff – both has the same mental makeup as Johnny Unitas. Very strong headed which could work against them in this day and age.

Nate Sudfeld – YES! Could be pick of the draft or huge bust. He has a mental makeup exact match to a top HOF QB (Brett Favre). That said he is a work in progress and needs more coaching and the right place for his development.

Wes Lunt – Maybe – same mental makeup as Nate Sudfeld and a HOF QB. We like Nate better.

Everett Golson/Vernon Adams Jr. – Maybe – but only if they are pocket QBs – Temperament match to Eli Manning. This is a very highly rated temperament for playing the NFL QB position with the historical president to win a Super Bowl. However in the NFL the QB position is played from the pocket and with knowledge of the a pro offense. If they do not have that skill then temperament is not relevant.

Chuckie Keeton – No – same as Matt Schaub. (too much anxiety under stress).

Max Wittek – No – big ego.

Joel Stave, QB, Wisconsin – Yes – This is a guy to look at. Temperament is an exact match to Tony Romo and Jim Hart. Could be an excellent value pick. Stave has started 38 career games at Wisconsin, and his record is 29-9. Could be the steal of the draft. Update: watched some tape and he looks good, could be a late round steal.

Once you have the mental makeup report for a specific player your scouting team will have unprecedented insight. So if you want the NFL PAM insight of a specific player, just ask.

What’s ‘Wrong’ with Marcus Mariota?

Before the 2015 NFL draft certain scouts postulated that Mariota would be a bust. They pointed to his conservative play and his low INTs count. Some likened him to Alex Smith, that both are unwilling to throw the ball downfield. Another scout said ‘something’ bothered him about Mariota but he didn’t know what ‘it’ was. The last concern was that he ran a non-pro offense at Oregon and the lack of a pro-style offense experience would sink his NFL career. The Titans took him anyway. Is there something really wrong with the uber-talented Mariota? Let’s get inside his head** and see what the NFL Personality Analysis Method says about Marcus Mariota. Will he be a long-term NFL success or a flash in the pan?

In this picture who looks more relaxed?

Marcus Mariota is categorized by the NFL Personality Analysis Method as an 8RsT-Wa. The traits of this personality are:

Positive Traits: Versatile, Dedication, Resilience, Discipline, Humor, Perfectionism.

Negative Traits: Anxiety, Suspicion, Cockiness, Perfectionism.

Comparison with Past and Current NFL QBs

Marcus Mariota is somewhat of an enigma. Of the top 110 NFL QBs of all-time (by completed passes) there are zero with an exact correlation. Also there are no Super Bowl winning QBs or all-time top with a high mental makeup correlation.

NFL QBs with a minor temperament correlation are Bart Starr, Brett Farve, Jameis Winston, Ken Stabler, Philip Rivers, Johnny Unitas, Matt Schaub and Jason Campbell.

Due to zero players with an exact correlation, predicting Mariota’s exact career path is difficult. If this year was 2515 and Super Bowl 550 then our data would be more certain, but this is Super Bowl 50 and there have been only 31 SB winning QBs. In spite of the limited data set his temperament analysis is still very useful.

Basic NFL Personalty Analysis of Marcus Mariota

Marcus comes from a physically gifted personality group and the dexterity talents show. His mental approach to life is that he is creative, smart, intelligent, independent, earnest and has a dry sense of humor. Although he has all the physical tools a team could want, oddly there are no historical top QBs with a match. Why? Our research shows that his temperament approach to life includes lots of hidden internal anxiety. Underneath his calm exterior is an ocean of anxiety. It comes from his desire for perfection. When someone is overly perfectionist they become anxious about being perfect and have difficultly mentally moving on after a perceived failure. Moving forward is key trait to survive the grind of an NFL career and he will keep getting back up and going but the anxiety could really play a negative role during playoff football. Few close to him know how deeply embedded his anxiety is – but he does. His strong emotions require a substantial effort to keep them patted down and to keep himself calm. Emotional thoughts plague his mind. Perhaps this is why this temperament has never had success at QB previously? It is difficult for an NFL QB to play two games at the same time, one on the field and one in his mind.

His anxiety has already made a few appearances, as an overreaction. Some would mistake it as competitiveness, and it partially is, but everything inside his mind is linked to anxiety. Once early this season he was hit while going out of bounds. The hit was 100% legal, as he was still in bounds, but Marcus was quickly bent out of shape. He was angry and overreacted. He bounced up, yelled and threw the ball. Clearly he was mentally out of sorts and overreacted but he bounced back.

Regarding the the lack of interceptions, it’s his perfectionism. He hates imperfection and so he wants to do everything just right, perfectly. Anything not perfect roils him. In college, being so much more physically gifted than others made football easy. The NFL will test his mental toughness, specifically the ability to moderate his expectations of perfection.

Risk Assesment

How can such an anxious guy lead a team? Good question, we don’t know. Will the emotional cracks start to show during a tight playoff game and would that make the huddle uptight? Is Marcus Mariota the anti-Joe Montana? Imagine the worst case playoff football scenario, he tosses an INT to lose the game. Would he explode? Combust? Ignite on the field? How would he handle such a loss in the days and weeks following? Could he return the following year after such a loss and still play at a high level? We think so, because of his amazing ability to bounce back, but friends and family should hang on for a rocky ride during the off season.

What will his career look like? Will it go down as one of those talented QBs that never win a SB? One common trait among SB winning QBs is being clutch. The QB overcome by uptight/negative emotions will not be clutch and usually don’t win Super Bowls (unless they got lucky with an excellent defensive effort). To answer the question, will Mariota will a super bowl? No, according to our research, it is low odds. Winston was a better statistical chance of winning a Super Bowl ring.

As a side note, we found a more recent NFLer with an high mental makeup correlation – Kellen Winslow, the talented record setting TE. So according to historical precedent TE is Marcus’ best position. The 8RsT-Wa personality in the TE role doesn’t have the mental pressures of running the offense and being at the center of attention. The TE has simpler job, blocks, runs routes and catches the ball. TE responsibilities align perfectly with Mariota’s natural gifting. Marcus is stretching himself to add the mental responsibilities of playing QB.

So were those scouts right? Is there’s something wrong with Marcus Mariota? Yes, he is not an ideal fit to play QB. However his QB skills and athleticism will result in a decent career that does not win a SB. The scounts detected his anxiety but didn’t have all the pieces to the Mariota temperament puzzle as only the NFL PAM can give. They could tell from their own historical precedent something wasn’t quite right and his mental approach isn’t the norm for a top drafted NFL QB. Even look at the image at the top of this article and compare it to Jameis, who looks relaxed and who looks uptight?

Armed with the insight of the NFL PAM we would have proposed these additional predraft questions to Mariota in order to prove our analysis:

1 – What does perfection look like to you?

2 – How do you handle failure? When was the last time you failed? What happened afterwards?

3 – Is failure ok? Such as passing an INT or losing a game ok? Why or why not?

4 – How do you relax or recharge? Do you ever feel at peace? When? What type of environment allows you to let your guard down?

5 – Have you ever been so anxious that you unraveled? How do you deal with anxiety?

6 – To you, what are important leadership qualities? Do you have any of those?

7 – Do you view yourself as a leader? Why should people follow you?

On the one hand, his anxiety and drive to perfection is good and desirable. If he conquers his emotional anxiety and perfectionism there’s no reason that he couldn’t win a Super Bowl or two! However if he unravels or if he never establishes himself as a team leader, we now know why.

I will be watching his career with curiosity and wish him all the best.

**This publicly available analysis is the basic analysis. This analysis is reduced to protect the player’s personal life and the team. Personality strengths or weaknesses don’t mean that a person is good or bad, just human. Our sole focus is to determine the player’s temperament and mental approach and how it translates onto the field.

Super Bowl Bound – A Prediction of Jameis Winston’s Career

Jameis Winston was the #1 overall pick of the 2015 NFL draft. According to our personality analysis of Jameis and historical precedent, he will become a Super Bowl NFL QB. The NFL Personality Analysis Method ranks Jameis as a 10RsT-Wa. The traits of this personality are:

Positive Traits: Earnestness, Confidence, Resolve, Candor, Enthusiasm, Dependability, Fashionable, Street Smart, Versatile, Studiousness.

Negative Traits: Overconfidence, Cockiness, Arrogance, Bossiness, Inflexibility, Know-it-all.

His mental approach to life and football is simply summarized as ‘very confident.’

The details of his mental approach to football life is this:

He is eager to please those who stand in judgement of his behavior, such as coaches.
If the coaches or management bully him or abuse their power he will be tempted to quit and walk away.
Possesses excellent intelligence and self reliance to become skilled in a variety of jobs/tasks. He is not naturally gifted for physical prowess. However he will study and work diligently to become a top flight NFL QB.
He enjoys action, moving forward at a quick pace and is not tolerant of red-tape.
In his own mind, he always knows best and will often refuse another person’s advice. He will drive himself to be successful and will not tolerate laziness among subordinates.
His final trait is that he has a very strong opinion on most everything and can be annoyingly over-honest.

Comparison with Past and Current NFL QBs

Jameis’ historical precedent analysis show an almost exact mental makeup match with with Bart Starr and Ken Stabler. Sharing a near exact correlation with 2 SB winning QBs is very rare. This bodes well for Jameis’ NFL career prospects. On the other hand he also has an exact match with first round bust Jason Campbell. Let’s see if we can predict which route his career will follow, the bust route or the Super Bowl winning route.

Basic NFL PAM Results

Jameis landed in a good place in Tampa with Lovie Smith. The report on Lovie is that he’s fair and runs a structured/disciplined program. This type of environment is a good incubator for Jameis to grow and learn. The report on Jameis has been mixed, with slow footwork and other physical tools as being rated the worst in his QB toolbox (and remember the off season overweight photo). Jameis’ strength is his work ethic and for driving those around him to get better. This aligns positively with Lovie’s philosophy. If Lovie’s defense continues to take steps forward and the offensive line improves the Bucs could be playoff bound soon.

Jameis’ Personality Family leans toward the gunslinger mindset and definitely are not ‘game managers’. Ken Stabler threw more INTs (222) than TDs (194) and Brett Farve is the all time leader of throwing INTs (336). Those with high mental makeup correlation to Jameis generally throw lots of picks, almost a 1:1 career ratio. Expect Jameis to throw his share of interceptions. It typically takes 3-5 years for these folks to become solid NFL QBs in which he’ll have his best year for yardage and TD:INT ratio. Based on our analysis thus far his career stats will apex in the middle and trend down on the second half. Unlike others, such as Elway, who peak during the second half of their career.

Risks

On the negative, Jameis shares a first round draft selection with Jason Campbell. Meanwhile Ken Stabler was a 2nd round pick and Bart Starr was drafted very late. The takeaway is that, like many QBs, it is good for these personalities to have to earn their way. Handing the reigns to Jameis too early, combined with his ego/overconfidence, is the primary concern we have. Early high expectations might have been part of Jason Campbell’s undoing. If Jameis becomes uncoachable and or his stats start falling then we know that he was given too much too soon. Year #2 and #3 will be telling. Will we see the focused, take nothing for granted, Jameis or the overly cocky, headstrong Jameis?

At the professional football level these men have already passed all the physical ability tests. The difference between Zach Mettenberger and Tom Brady is desire, work ethic and mental approach to the game. The attitude ‘we haven’t earn anything yet’ is the approach for the coaching staff to take with Jameis. Downplay every win or loss and shift focus to the next game. Take a long term perspective. Don’t get too emotionally high or too low with Jameis. Stay focused on the future and on the end goal, winning the Super Bowl. When he earns trust, reward him with more responsibility. The coaches should let him voice his feedback. A considerate reply will go far with him.

Conclusion

That wraps up the basic Personality Analysis Method for Jameis Winston. He comes from a lineage of successful NFL QBs and the historical success of this Pf/Pt combination is rare. In spite of lacking physical prowess, he has a winning mental makeup for NFL success and the historical precedent to back it up. Combined with the right system, he has the necessary tools to win a Super Bowl. I wish Jameis all the best…and you heard it here first, congrats to Jameis Winston on at least one Super Bowl win.

**This publicly available analysis is the basic analysis. This analysis is reduced to protect the player’s personal life and the team. Personality strengths or weaknesses don’t mean that a person is good or bad, just human. Our sole focus is to determine if the player’s personality traits make for a good NFL QB.

Introduction – The NFL PAM Revolution

What separates a really good NFL QB from a great NFL QB? Or a physically gifted QB from getting outplayed by a less gifted QB? It is the grey matter, the stuff between his ears.

Case in point – Tom Brady. Tom Brady’s 40-yd dash combine time was 5.28 seconds. His combine QB score is the worst of all time.

Yet he has 4 SB wins.

Current player analysis methods do not and can not account for what the NFL PAM can. The NFL Personality Analysis Method categorizes and compares with past QB a players mental makeup. Current NFL methods reply so much on physical (which is important but only half the picture, look at WR C. Patterson) that drafting a team is somewhat of an educated guess. Currently the best of NFL mental analysis includes following Jameis Winston on an airplane flight (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2418276-jameis-winston-the-most-investigated-player-in-nfl-history) and around campus. They hope that they can can look inside his mind. The NFL Personality Analysis Method can and here’s our post on Jameis Winston.

Announced here first, Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady have almost same exact temperament makeup (80% Correlation). Both were known for comebacks in their college careers. Both are clutch and both remain cool under pressure. Look carefully at Tyrod’s tape. In college, Tyrod had one of the most improbable comebacks in VT’s history. The NFL PAM is very high on his future – assuming ego doesn’t turn into overconfidence and he gets a better coach and team around him. Tyrod has the mental tools to be a SB winner, perhaps in the next few years, as long as his desire to improve/compete remains.

This website introduces the NFL PAM method and offers basic analysis and comparison of players. The most basic idea is that there are several families of temperaments. More importantly these temperaments are subdivided into 144 specific types. These groups form the initial and most basic of our analysis. Temperaments can be further subdivided and reported on in detail. Now with the NFL PAM a team could pick the exact type of player it wants. Do you want someone with the same temperament makeup as Tom Brady or Kurt Warner or Joe Montana? Maybe you want someone else, how about Roger Staubach? How about Aaron Rodgers? Knowledge about a player’s mental makeup is key when a team is planning on sinking millions and the future of the franchise on a QB. The NFL Personality Analysis is design to find these guys. If you find them as a UD FA or in the draft at a lower round then you can sink money into your defense and quickly build a winning team. This a similar concept to what’s allowed the Seahawks to be a dominant team.

Have you ever considered that some very talented QBs have been overlooked because we rely so much on physical ability? Kurt Warner was stocking grocery shelves. Tom Brady had his resume ready to job hunt before the NFL draft and the Pats took him in the 6th.

I discovered which QBs win SBs and why. The reason is because they are best mentally equipped to play QB in the NFL and perform under stress. Being able to Identify QBs and compare them to past QB personalities is a literal game-changer for NFL teams.