Month: January 2016

NFL Super Bowl – Prediction

Carolina will have a difficult time beating a top ranked Denver defense and the best game manager of all-time in ancient Peyton Manning. However according to our research of Super Bowl winning QBs, Cam has a 2:1 chance of winning this game. Ignoring everything else except our temperament makeup analysis of the starting QBs…

Winner – Carolina.

:::::Super Bowl 50 Post Game Analysis:::::

Even though our prediction was incorrect Cam Newton outplayed Peyton Manning. Obviously looking at one factor, temperament makeup, is one of many that go toward winning a Super Bowl. Defense, team discipline and coaching all play a role. Carolina’s early missed field goal was the beginning of the momentum shift. Later, after the Tolbert fumble momentum clearly began shifting. Tolbert should have known better and kept two hands on the ball! Those two plays could have been an additional 6-10 points and provided a huge shift in momentum in Carolina’s favor. Instead they got behind and Denver’s defense turned up the pressure. These three things would have helped Carolina; 1) short to mid range timing passes to move the chains 2) a better WR – they missed Kelvin Benjamin 3) The third thing is eliminating mental mistakes. Mental mistakes lost Carolina the game. That’s a coaching failure.

Peyton Manning is done. He’s had a great career and now should retire. He should consider coaching. There’s no reason for him to continue playing. Therefore if Manning returns it is simply Peyton trying to prove us wrong and prove that he can still play. That’s the wrong reason to keep playing, let’s hope he shuts it down.

In the end Carolina’s mental mistakes lost the game and Denver’s defense won the game. The end of game strip of Cam’s pass was just the cherry on top for Denver. Cam shouldn’t be too hard on himself as that play didn’t lose the game. Actually Cam carried the entire offense on his shoulders. Cam will bounce back from this game and could be back for another Super Bowl. It was the mental break down that lost Carolina the game, Carolina was out-coached by Denver.

NFL Draft 2016 – Our Quick Comments on the Top QBs

Our unique research of NFL QB mental makeup has revealed that temperament makeup is linked to winning Super Bowls and is more important than physical ability such as 40-yard dash time. While we could produce long reports about the temperament makeup, his ideal system ad environment and historical precedent…publicly we will only provide a list of quick comments regarding the 2016 NFL draft QBs.

For an overview of our method, read our analysis of NFL players.

We love Carson Wentz but if you are picking a QB late here’s our top QB VALUE picks of the NFL 2016 draft based on one factor – a historical comparison of temperament makeup to past NFL QBs (these rankings do not account for football skills such as, “Can he make all the throws?”). Practically a team would want an analysis of a QB’s arm strength, pro-style offense knowledge and temperament. You want a QB that has all 3 such as Carson Wentz. Our temperament ‘value’ picks:

1 – Nate Sudfeld (Risk – huge potential or bust). Temperament equal, Brett Favre.

2 – Joel Stave. Same temperament as Tony Romo, which means he has the mental goods to function as an NFL QB. Also Joel is clutch and he WINS. Major draft value pick, like Romo. Negative – could get lost in his head, overthink things, needs to have fun to enjoy and stay loose.

3 – Jeff Driskel/Cody Kessler –  if you have the right staff. (risky but potential starting QB).

 

Other QBs – Our Draft Comment

Carson Wentz’s – Draft? Yes! Same Temperament Makeup type as Eli Manning. #1 QB.

Jared Goff – Yes – Same mental makeup type as Dave Krieg but Wentz is better.

Paxton Lynch – Maybe – but not in 1st round (he has no top QBs comparisons of the same mental makeup type). This QB could be a bust and his situation requires more research.

Jacoby Brissett – Maybe. No exact matches but could be a basic NFL starter.

Kevin Hogan – Maybe – No exact matches in top QB list. Our guess: but could be a basic fill-in/backup NFL QB.

Jeff Driskel/Cody Kessler – Maybe, if you have the right staff – both has the same mental makeup as Johnny Unitas. Very strong headed which could work against them in this day and age.

Nate Sudfeld – YES! Could be pick of the draft or huge bust. He has a mental makeup exact match to a top HOF QB (Brett Favre). That said he is a work in progress and needs more coaching and the right place for his development.

Wes Lunt – Maybe –  same mental makeup as Nate Sudfeld and a HOF QB. We like Nate better.

Everett Golson/Vernon Adams Jr. – Maybe – but only if they are pocket QBs – Temperament match to Eli Manning. This is a very highly rated temperament for playing the NFL QB position with the historical president to win a Super Bowl. However in the NFL the QB position is played from the pocket and with knowledge of the a pro offense. If they do not have that skill then temperament is not relevant.

Chuckie Keeton – No – same as Matt Schaub. (too much anxiety under stress).

Max Wittek – No – big ego.

Joel Stave, QB, Wisconsin – Yes – This is a guy to look at. Temperament is an exact match to Tony Romo and Jim Hart. Could be an excellent value pick. Stave has started 38 career games at Wisconsin, and his record is 29-9. Could be the steal of the draft. Update: watched some tape and he looks good, could be a late round steal.

Once you have the mental makeup report for a specific player your scouting team will have unprecedented insight. So if you want the NFL PAM insight of a specific player, just ask.

 

 

Carson Wentz, QB – 2016 Draft – Quick Analysis

How will Carson Wentz handle the transition to the NFL? How does he compare to historical QBs? According to our personality matrix he is the same mental makeup type as Eli Manning. Therefore under pressure and stress he should be a clutch QB.

What’s the negative to his mental makeup type? Indifference. NFL teams should vet his level of humility. If indifference and arrogance are overwhelming then steer clear as he could be the next Johnny Manziel. But we don’t think it’s an issue for Carson. As long as that checks out he could become the next Eli Manning – a Super Bowl winning QB. He is a good draft pick as he has the mental tools (and the historical precedent) to win a Super Bowl. Learning from Tony Romo in Dallas is an excellent situation for Carson. But there could be better values drafted later in this draft class but if you have a top pick in the draft – DRAFT CARSON WENTZ!

 

Update 1/29: From rotoworld.com

A “highly-respected personnel man” believes the Browns should take North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz at No. 2 overall.
“If the Browns take Carson Wentz at No. 2 they’d be set for 15 years,” the “top NFL personnel executive” told reporter Mary Kay Cabot. “He’s the best quarterback in the draft. If I were picking at No. 2, I’d take him. It will solve all of their problems and they’d get that team turned around.” Cabot reports the quarterback-starved Browns have “genuine” interest in the FCS product. Per Cabot, scouts have “marveled” at Wentz’s size (6-foot-5, 233 pounds) and “other physical attributes” at this week’s Senior Bowl.
NFL PAM – I agree, Carson should become a franchise QB and he is ranked as our #1 QB in the draft class, above Goff. It’s not his physical attributes alone but his mental makeup that make Carson a top franchise QB.

A New Tool for NFL Scouts – Mental Makeup/Personality Analysis

The NFL Personality Analysis Method is a new niche of scouting and player evaluation. More than most any other sport, football is a team-centric game. Moneyball analytics haven’t successfully translated from baseball to football because football is a team sport. Winning football requires all 11 guys to be in sync, doing their job, having each other’s back and executing the gameplan. In order for that to happen you need the right people with the right temperament makeup. During the many decades of NFL football clear patterns have emerged and shown us specific temperament that result in winning Super Bowls. Also it is clear that drafting physical traits without understanding the temperament personality is like flying blind. Because of this many teams have drafted busts in the first round. Drafting busts costs millions of dollars and wasted time. This can be minimized or even avoided and GMs can now strategically build winners. Everyone can evaluate a 40-time but the money is now on temperament evaluation. This is how championships are won. Our new tool to determines the temperament makeup to NFL teams an edge.

Two busts that the NFL PAM easily picked out was Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Manziel. Manziel COULD have a bright future IF he decides to start caring about his team instead of himself. Manziel’s personality weakness is indifference and Patterson’s is lawlessness (as in ‘rules are for other people, not me’). This is why Patterson runs a go route instead of the button hook as designed by the called play.

“The quarterback is the leader of the team” is incorrect. The coach is the leader of the team. The quarterback must execute the leader’s gameplan. The coach is the CEO and the QB is the COO. Our research shows that successful NFL QB temperaments can stay cool under pressure and can also execute a coach’s offensive system. They take commands and carry out the coach’s orders. They fail when they crack under pressure or decide to ignore the coach and do whatever they want. The larger ‘personality family (PF)’ that Peyton Manning belongs to never had a Super Bowl win until he won. Why? Because his temperament type is overly intense, not calm, and wants to be the CEO instead of the coach. His temperament type can make an excellent NFL coach. This type of QB is an ‘uncoachable subordinate’ and that won’t be tolerated by a strong coach (this is why Ryan Mallet got the boot). As winning covers almost all flaws, Peyton’s coaches have allowed for Peyton (the COO) to act as the CEO. This accommodates Peyton’s demand for control. Meanwhile Tom Brady is totally different and his temperament is a more natural fit for the NFL QB ‘COO’ position as he demands less control than Manning. Also Brady is able to stay emotionally much more cool than Peyton. This too makes him a better fit to deal with the stress of playing QB and to carry out the coach’s game plan. Obviously both are winners but it is these differences that win Super Bowls. (late Jan 2016 Super Bowl update: the Denver defense is carrying Manning and a strong defense allows for a game manager to win Super Bowls. Peyton’s negative intensity shows up as his playoff numbers are worse than regular season number. This shows he is pushing too hard.)

How does this impact winning games? Because football is a truly a team game and it’s a uniquely human game. Temperaments matter as the roles people play (coach, QB, WR, TE and so on) are depending on each other to be successful. The emotional, relational and psychological aspects of a player matters as much as physical ability and the team’s offensive system. Our ongoing research continues to reaffirm this finding. Additionally historical precedent gives us a new level of insight into how that player will processes these aspects of NFL football – relationships, stress, failure, submitting to the coaches authority and even how the live game itself is processed in real-time. The difference between busts, good and great players is the ability to mentally process the game in a specific way. While there are many examples that the PAM could have easily predicted, one example of failure is RG3. RG3’s mental makeup had no historical precedent of success and for good reason too as our RG3 article discusses.

A later article “A Tale of Two Mannings” uncovers why Peyton’s stats drop in the playoffs, while Eli’s go up. Hint: it is linked to how they perceive and process stress. Our research shows this was easily predictable and Eli belongs to a temperament family that is more statistically favorable at winning Super Bowls than his brother.

Stay tuned as we will briefly cover a list of college QBs before the 2016 draft.