Before the 2015 NFL draft certain scouts postulated that Mariota would be a bust. They pointed to his conservative play and his low INTs count. Some likened him to Alex Smith, that both are unwilling to throw the ball downfield. Another scout said ‘something’ bothered him about Mariota but he didn’t know what ‘it’ was. The last concern was that he ran a non-pro offense at Oregon and the lack of a pro-style offense experience would sink his NFL career. The Titans took him anyway. Is there something really wrong with the uber-talented Mariota? Let’s get inside his head** and see what the NFL Personality Analysis Method says about Marcus Mariota. Will he be a long-term NFL success or a flash in the pan?
In this picture who looks more relaxed?
Marcus Mariota is categorized by the NFL Personality Analysis Method as an 8RsT-Wa. The traits of this personality are:
Positive Traits: Versatile, Dedication, Resilience, Discipline, Humor, Perfectionism.
Negative Traits: Anxiety, Suspicion, Cockiness, Perfectionism.
Comparison with Past and Current NFL QBs
Marcus Mariota is somewhat of an enigma. Of the top 110 NFL QBs of all-time (by completed passes) there are zero with an exact correlation. Also there are no Super Bowl winning QBs or all-time top with a high mental makeup correlation.
NFL QBs with a minor temperament correlation are Bart Starr, Brett Farve, Jameis Winston, Ken Stabler, Philip Rivers, Johnny Unitas, Matt Schaub and Jason Campbell.
Due to zero players with an exact correlation, predicting Mariota’s exact career path is difficult. If this year was 2515 and Super Bowl 550 then our data would be more certain, but this is Super Bowl 50 and there have been only 31 SB winning QBs. In spite of the limited data set his temperament analysis is still very useful.
Basic NFL Personalty Analysis of Marcus Mariota
Marcus comes from a physically gifted personality group and the dexterity talents show. His mental approach to life is that he is creative, smart, intelligent, independent, earnest and has a dry sense of humor. Although he has all the physical tools a team could want, oddly there are no historical top QBs with a match. Why? Our research shows that his temperament approach to life includes lots of hidden internal anxiety. Underneath his calm exterior is an ocean of anxiety. It comes from his desire for perfection. When someone is overly perfectionist they become anxious about being perfect and have difficultly mentally moving on after a perceived failure. Moving forward is key trait to survive the grind of an NFL career and he will keep getting back up and going but the anxiety could really play a negative role during playoff football. Few close to him know how deeply embedded his anxiety is – but he does. His strong emotions require a substantial effort to keep them patted down and to keep himself calm. Emotional thoughts plague his mind. Perhaps this is why this temperament has never had success at QB previously? It is difficult for an NFL QB to play two games at the same time, one on the field and one in his mind.
His anxiety has already made a few appearances, as an overreaction. Some would mistake it as competitiveness, and it partially is, but everything inside his mind is linked to anxiety. Once early this season he was hit while going out of bounds. The hit was 100% legal, as he was still in bounds, but Marcus was quickly bent out of shape. He was angry and overreacted. He bounced up, yelled and threw the ball. Clearly he was mentally out of sorts and overreacted but he bounced back.
Regarding the the lack of interceptions, it’s his perfectionism. He hates imperfection and so he wants to do everything just right, perfectly. Anything not perfect roils him. In college, being so much more physically gifted than others made football easy. The NFL will test his mental toughness, specifically the ability to moderate his expectations of perfection.
Risk Assesment
How can such an anxious guy lead a team? Good question, we don’t know. Will the emotional cracks start to show during a tight playoff game and would that make the huddle uptight? Is Marcus Mariota the anti-Joe Montana? Imagine the worst case playoff football scenario, he tosses an INT to lose the game. Would he explode? Combust? Ignite on the field? How would he handle such a loss in the days and weeks following? Could he return the following year after such a loss and still play at a high level? We think so, because of his amazing ability to bounce back, but friends and family should hang on for a rocky ride during the off season.
What will his career look like? Will it go down as one of those talented QBs that never win a SB? One common trait among SB winning QBs is being clutch. The QB overcome by uptight/negative emotions will not be clutch and usually don’t win Super Bowls (unless they got lucky with an excellent defensive effort). To answer the question, will Mariota will a super bowl? No, according to our research, it is low odds. Winston was a better statistical chance of winning a Super Bowl ring.
As a side note, we found a more recent NFLer with an high mental makeup correlation – Kellen Winslow, the talented record setting TE. So according to historical precedent TE is Marcus’ best position. The 8RsT-Wa personality in the TE role doesn’t have the mental pressures of running the offense and being at the center of attention. The TE has simpler job, blocks, runs routes and catches the ball. TE responsibilities align perfectly with Mariota’s natural gifting. Marcus is stretching himself to add the mental responsibilities of playing QB.
So were those scouts right? Is there’s something wrong with Marcus Mariota? Yes, he is not an ideal fit to play QB. However his QB skills and athleticism will result in a decent career that does not win a SB. The scounts detected his anxiety but didn’t have all the pieces to the Mariota temperament puzzle as only the NFL PAM can give. They could tell from their own historical precedent something wasn’t quite right and his mental approach isn’t the norm for a top drafted NFL QB. Even look at the image at the top of this article and compare it to Jameis, who looks relaxed and who looks uptight?
Armed with the insight of the NFL PAM we would have proposed these additional predraft questions to Mariota in order to prove our analysis:
1 – What does perfection look like to you?
2 – How do you handle failure? When was the last time you failed? What happened afterwards?
3 – Is failure ok? Such as passing an INT or losing a game ok? Why or why not?
4 – How do you relax or recharge? Do you ever feel at peace? When? What type of environment allows you to let your guard down?
5 – Have you ever been so anxious that you unraveled? How do you deal with anxiety?
6 – To you, what are important leadership qualities? Do you have any of those?
7 – Do you view yourself as a leader? Why should people follow you?
On the one hand, his anxiety and drive to perfection is good and desirable. If he conquers his emotional anxiety and perfectionism there’s no reason that he couldn’t win a Super Bowl or two! However if he unravels or if he never establishes himself as a team leader, we now know why.
I will be watching his career with curiosity and wish him all the best.
MP
**This publicly available analysis is the basic analysis. This analysis is reduced to protect the player’s personal life and the team. Personality strengths or weaknesses don’t mean that a person is good or bad, just human. Our sole focus is to determine the player’s temperament and mental approach and how it translates onto the field.