Month: November 2015

Quick Hit: Brock Osweiler

To successfully play QB in the NFL one must have the right temperament tools and Brock Osweiler has the ability, let’s see how he uses it.

Brock Osweiler temperament is matched to Troy Aikman.  This will be a brief analysis and on the surface it seems to be an good situation for the Broncos. Let’s take a look at Aikman’s numbers: only once threw for more than 20 TDs, never threw over 3500 yards in a season and has an almost 1:1 TD to INT ratio. After Jimmy Johnson left the Cowboys and Aikman began to fall apart. Therefore we can briefly conclude Brock is not a generational QB but could be a decent starter for a well-managed team.

Also the negative trait of Osweiler’s temperament trait is independence – if taken to an extreme turns into disobedience, selfishness and an inability to connect or fit in with teammates. Holding the clipboard for the past couple of years has been beneficial for his mental and emotional development. If the negative traits are minimized Osweiler could flourish and Manning can retire.

Quick Hit: T.J. Yates and a Proposed Way Forward for the Texans

Congratulations to TJ Yates who led the Houston Texans over the Cincinnati Bengals on MNF.

We ran his information against historical NFL QBs and discovered that his personality/temperament makeup is highly correlated to that of Hall of Fame and Charger legend Dan Fouts. Dan had his best statistical years from the ages 28-34 and T.J. Yates is 28. Since 2012 Yates has attempted less than 50 passes. We say, let Yates play and see what he’s got.

According to our Personality Analysis Method, a potential way forward is to let Yates play now. If he plays well down the stretch, sign him to a long-term team-friendly deal. Because the next couple of draft classes will produce SB winning QBs, draft one that compares favorably to a successful historical QB. According to our research the newly drafted QB should not play his first year. If Yates can post good numbers in this 28-34 age window then trade him when his value is at it’s highest, around age 31 or 32. The Texans should be able to get several mid-level draft picks and promote the QB they drafted (with an ideal temperament) to starter.

Of course this is all dependent on one thing – whether Yates can post good numbers down the stretch. From our research he could be enough to bridge the year or two gap.

An important note, his temperament family has never won a Super Bowl and that’s why we recommend him as a short term, 2-3 year, solution.

NFL BUST: Cordarrelle Patterson

We usually investigate QBs however today we are going to take a look at a WR. The NFL PAM categorizes Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson as a 12GT-ML.

The NFL combine report on Patterson finished with this summary:

NFL Comparison Demaryius Thomas

The Bottom Line: He may be considered raw with his ability to handle physical coverage, but Patterson is one of the more naturally talented pass catchers to come along in the last few years. He only has one year of tape against FBS level of competition, but from the first game Patterson showed his versatility by making plays from a variety of alignments. If the Vol can start using his hands to release off the line and tighten up some technique issues, he should be one of this class’ top playmakers. He should be a first-round selection and could be the first receiver off the board.

From: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cordarrelle-patterson?id=2540145

We have a very different view on Patterson. The NFL Personality Analysis Method flashed a red flag on him. He has a similar problem to RG3 – that of being uncoachable. Patterson adds to it by never owning his mistakes. Even though Cordarrelle has many other natural talents, this personality doesn’t translate well to the NFL. They are a law unto themselves. In other words, team laws and rules don’t apply to these people. How this practically plays out is when he’s asked to run a curl route he will instead run a go route. You ask him to block and he runs a slant. When the coach asks him about it, Cordarrelle doesn’t think he’s done anything wrong. Physical talent is only part of the picture for successful NFL player and personality (which is the mental ability to process the game) is perhaps more important. It doesn’t matter that Cordarrelle ran a 4.42 and is a physical beast.  This personality has never translated well to the NFL nor experienced extended NFL success.

The NFL PAM would have steered the Vikings scouting department away from Patterson. Cordarrelle and RG3 are both examples that a player needs the right physical/football skills and the right personality traits to process the game. Sometimes the turn of a person’s career (and life) can be traced to the moment of humility and accepting that he’s wrong. Cordarrelle, it isn’t everyone else who’s at fault, you need to own it but he probably doesn’t care enough – remember rules and laws are for everyone else.

Surprisingly there’s a QB with the same personality who experienced a short term of NFL success was Tommy Kramer who also played for the Vikings.

If you are wondering about the NFL Combine report which compared Cordarrelle to Demaryius Thomas, Thomas and Patterson are very different people. The NFL analysis, primarily focusing physical traits, is way off in linking the potential career outcomes of those two players.

Outside of football, Cordarrelle Patterson has a high temperament correlation with Apple founder Steve Jobs. These talented characters are difficult to work with.

Beyond any doubt there’s more to an NFL player than bench press and 40-yd dash times. Certain NFL teams have figured this out (Patriots come to mind) and other teams will get a leg up on them by using the NFL PAM to find the best players for their team.

Quick Hit: Tim Tebow

We classify Tim as a 5CT-FE. His temperament family has won zero Super Bowls and is home to many NFL QB busts. These particular personalities prefer to avoid conflict and because of that they don’t win Super Bowls.

Tim has an high correlation of personality traits with interception machine Norm Snead.

NFL BUST: RG3

According to the NFL Personality Analysis Method, Robert Griffin III is a bust. Some (such as Jerry Jones) might think that’s a little premature. However from our research there’s a slim to zero chance that he’ll win or even play in a Super Bowl. If the Redskins had been using the NFL PAM these traits would have been easily identified long before drafting him. Let’s review his mental approach to the game and see why RG3 is a bust.

QBs are leaders on the field and their mental approach is the difference maker between success and failure. RG3 has these traits:

Positive Traits: Originality, Dexterity, Resolve, Style, Tolerance.

Negative Traits: Disobedience, Selfishness, Anxiety, Rebellion, Cruelty.

There are no top historical NFL QBs with mental makeup correlation and we’ll explain why.

First let’s review RG3s positives and his mental approach to life. He is smart, interesting and energetic. Also he is intelligent, dedicated and desires freedom. He loves his family. His desires more from life than just money, he desires an interesting life. Physically RG3 is obviously gifted. However our research clearly shows that physical gifts matter less and than a QBs mental approach to the game.

Like everyone, RG3 has negative traits too. However according to our research his particular negative traits are proven to be undesirable for NFL QBs. We would never have drafted him in the first round. It was recently summed up when Rodney Harrison called RG3 a jerk …not a ringing endorsement of a team leader. Let’s expand on Harrison’s comment. A key trait for NFL QB success is a team-first mindset and someone who can relate to the guys. If your QB is a jerk, who cares how physically gifted he is. Nobody will rally around a jerk. It doesn’t matter if he is or is not a jerk – there’s a perception and perception is reality. According to our research RG3 never feels like he fits in even when he’s in the middle of a group, except with family. It’s just a sense this particular personality feels – he doesn’t fit in. Perhaps this is why he comes off as a jerk, he feels disconnected from the group. Another characteristic to RG3’s mental approach to the game is that he is too busy anxiously over-thinking. Also he is stubbornly independent. RG3 will tell the coach that ‘he’ll listen this time and do it the coaches way’ but in the end is going to do whatever he wants. Therein lies the problem, he is uncoachable. As intelligent as RG3 is, he forgets that he cannot win by himself. Everyone from the coaches to the waterboy play a role. His role is to execute the offense exactly as the coaching staff says. Instead he goes off script. Therefore RG3’s mental approach has made him uncoachable and unsuccessful NFL QB. Looking at his above negative traits; Disobedience, Selfishness, Anxiety, Rebellion…he is not a team player nor is he someone who will execute the coach’s game plan.

In conclusion, RG3 has all the physical talent in the world but as a NFL QB he will never win a Super Bowl. A winning NFL QB follows the coaches’ game plan and relates to the other guys. A football team follows the QB’s lead and they look up to him. For this and other reasons mentioned, RG3 at QB will never find NFL Super Bowl success. As a human RG3 has many good sides and even a hidden fun/zany side. However as an NFL QB RG3 is a bust. He’s uncoachable and stubbornly so. Perhaps the thought that goes through his mind is, “I was successful in college/high school playing this certain way so why should I change?”

Historically this mental approach type has had zero NFL success at QB. RG3 was drafted for his athletic ability but his mental approach is ruining his career. This confirms, again, how important mental makeup is when building a football team. RG3’s story reminded me of an old proverb: ‘Be not wise in thine own eyes…’ His 1st round draft selection has wasted money and years for the Redskin organization. Don’t make the same decision – contact us to use NFL PAM for your organization.

What’s ‘Wrong’ with Marcus Mariota?

Before the 2015 NFL draft certain scouts postulated that Mariota would be a bust. They pointed to his conservative play and his low INTs count. Some likened him to Alex Smith, that both are unwilling to throw the ball downfield.  Another scout said ‘something’ bothered him about Mariota but he didn’t know what ‘it’ was. The last concern was that he ran a non-pro offense at Oregon and the lack of a pro-style offense experience would sink his NFL career. The Titans took him anyway. Is there something really wrong with the uber-talented Mariota? Let’s get inside his head** and see what the NFL Personality Analysis Method says about Marcus Mariota. Will he be a long-term NFL success or a flash in the pan?

In this picture who looks more relaxed?

Marcus and Jameis

Marcus Mariota is categorized by the NFL Personality Analysis Method as an 8RsT-Wa. The traits of this personality are:

Positive Traits: Versatile, Dedication, Resilience, Discipline, Humor, Perfectionism.

Negative Traits: Anxiety, Suspicion, Cockiness, Perfectionism.

Comparison with Past and Current NFL QBs

Marcus Mariota is somewhat of an enigma. Of the top 110 NFL QBs of all-time (by completed passes) there are zero with an exact correlation. Also there are no Super Bowl winning QBs or all-time top with a high mental makeup correlation.

NFL QBs with a minor temperament correlation are Bart Starr, Brett Farve, Jameis Winston, Ken Stabler, Philip Rivers, Johnny Unitas, Matt Schaub and Jason Campbell.

Due to zero players with an exact correlation, predicting Mariota’s exact career path is difficult. If this year was 2515 and Super Bowl 550 then our data would be more certain, but this is Super Bowl 50 and there have been only 31 SB winning QBs. In spite of the limited data set his temperament analysis is still very useful.

Basic NFL Personalty Analysis of Marcus Mariota

Marcus comes from a physically gifted personality group and the dexterity talents show. His mental approach to life is that he is creative, smart, intelligent, independent, earnest and has a dry sense of humor. Although he has all the physical tools a team could want, oddly there are no historical top QBs with a match. Why? Our research shows that his temperament approach to life includes lots of hidden internal anxiety. Underneath his calm exterior is an ocean of anxiety. It comes from his desire for perfection. When someone is overly perfectionist they become anxious about being perfect and have difficultly mentally moving on after a perceived failure. Moving forward is key trait to survive the grind of an NFL career and he will keep getting back up and going but the anxiety could really play a negative role during playoff football. Few close to him know how deeply embedded his anxiety is – but he does. His strong emotions require a substantial effort to keep them patted down and to keep himself calm. Emotional thoughts plague his mind. Perhaps this is why this temperament has never had success at QB previously? It is difficult for an NFL QB to play two games at the same time, one on the field and one in his mind.

His anxiety has already made a few appearances, as an overreaction. Some would mistake it as competitiveness, and it partially is, but everything inside his mind is linked to anxiety. Once early this season he was hit while going out of bounds. The hit was 100% legal, as he was still in bounds, but Marcus was quickly bent out of shape. He was angry and overreacted. He bounced up, yelled and threw the ball. Clearly he was mentally out of sorts and overreacted but he bounced back.

Regarding the the lack of interceptions, it’s his perfectionism. He hates imperfection and so he wants to do everything just right, perfectly. Anything not perfect roils him. In college, being so much more physically gifted than others made football easy. The NFL will test his mental toughness, specifically the ability to moderate his expectations of perfection.

Risk Assesment

How can such an anxious guy lead a team? Good question, we don’t know. Will the emotional cracks start to show during a tight playoff game and would that make the huddle uptight? Is Marcus Mariota the anti-Joe Montana? Imagine the worst case playoff football scenario, he tosses an INT to lose the game. Would he explode? Combust? Ignite on the field? How would he handle such a loss in the days and weeks following? Could he return the following year after such a loss and still play at a high level? We think so, because of his amazing ability to bounce back, but friends and family should hang on for a rocky ride during the off season.

What will his career look like? Will it go down as one of those talented QBs that never win a SB? One common trait among SB winning QBs is being clutch. The QB overcome by uptight/negative emotions will not be clutch and usually don’t win Super Bowls (unless they got lucky with an excellent defensive effort). To answer the question, will Mariota will a super bowl? No, according to our research, it is low odds. Winston was a better statistical chance of winning a Super Bowl ring.

As a side note, we found a more recent NFLer with an high mental makeup correlation – Kellen Winslow, the talented record setting TE. So according to historical precedent TE is Marcus’ best position. The 8RsT-Wa personality in the TE role doesn’t have the mental pressures of running the offense and being at the center of attention. The TE has simpler job, blocks, runs routes and catches the ball. TE responsibilities align perfectly with Mariota’s natural gifting. Marcus is stretching himself to add the mental responsibilities of playing QB.

So were those scouts right? Is there’s something wrong with Marcus Mariota? Yes, he is not an ideal fit to play QB. However his QB skills and athleticism will result in a decent career that does not win a SB. The scounts detected his anxiety but didn’t have all the pieces to the Mariota temperament puzzle as only the NFL PAM can give. They could tell from their own historical precedent something wasn’t quite right and his mental approach isn’t the norm for a top drafted NFL QB. Even look at the image at the top of this article and compare it to Jameis, who looks relaxed and who looks uptight?

Armed with the insight of the NFL PAM we would have proposed these additional predraft questions to Mariota in order to prove our analysis:

1 – What does perfection look like to you?

2 – How do you handle failure? When was the last time you failed? What happened afterwards?

3 – Is failure ok? Such as passing an INT or losing a game ok? Why or why not?

4 – How do you relax or recharge? Do you ever feel at peace? When? What type of environment allows you to let your guard down?

5 – Have you ever been so anxious that you unraveled? How do you deal with anxiety?

6 – To you, what are important leadership qualities? Do you have any of those?

7 – Do you view yourself as a leader? Why should people follow you?

On the one hand, his anxiety and drive to perfection is good and desirable. If he conquers his emotional anxiety and perfectionism there’s no reason that he couldn’t win a Super Bowl or two! However if he unravels or if he never establishes himself as a team leader, we now know why.

I will be watching his career with curiosity and wish him all the best.

MP

 

**This publicly available analysis is the basic analysis. This analysis is reduced to protect the player’s personal life and the team. Personality strengths or weaknesses don’t mean that a person is good or bad, just human. Our sole focus is to determine the player’s temperament and mental approach and how it translates onto the field.

Super Bowl Bound – A Prediction of Jameis Winston’s Career

Jameis Winston was the #1 overall pick of the 2015 NFL draft. According to our personality analysis of Jameis and historical precedent, he will become a Super Bowl NFL QB. The NFL Personality Analysis Method ranks Jameis as a 10RsT-Wa. The traits of this personality are:

Positive Traits: Earnestness, Confidence, Resolve, Candor, Enthusiasm, Dependability, Fashionable, Street Smart, Versatile, Studiousness.

Negative Traits: Overconfidence, Cockiness, Arrogance, Bossiness, Inflexibility, Know-it-all.

His mental approach to life and football is simply summarized as ‘very confident.’

The details of his mental approach to football life is this:

  • He is eager to please those who stand in judgement of his behavior, such as coaches.
  • If the coaches or management bully him or abuse their power he will be tempted to quit and walk away.
  • Possesses excellent intelligence and self reliance to become skilled in a variety of jobs/tasks. He is not naturally gifted for physical prowess. However he will study and work diligently to become a top flight NFL QB.
  • He enjoys action, moving forward at a quick pace and is not tolerant of red-tape.
  • In his own mind, he always knows best and will often refuse another person’s advice. He will drive himself to be successful and will not tolerate laziness among subordinates.
  • His final trait is that he has a very strong opinion on most everything and can be annoyingly over-honest.

Comparison with Past and Current NFL QBs

Jameis’ historical precedent analysis show an almost exact mental makeup match with with Bart Starr and Ken Stabler. Sharing a near exact correlation with 2 SB winning QBs is very rare. This bodes well for Jameis’ NFL career prospects. On the other hand he also has an exact match with first round bust Jason Campbell. Let’s see if we can predict which route his career will follow, the bust route or the Super Bowl winning route.

Basic NFL PAM Results

Jameis landed in a good place in Tampa with Lovie Smith. The report on Lovie is that he’s fair and runs a structured/disciplined program. This type of environment is a good incubator for Jameis to grow and learn. The report on Jameis has been mixed, with slow footwork and other physical tools as being rated the worst in his QB toolbox (and remember the off season overweight photo). Jameis’ strength is his work ethic and for driving those around him to get better. This aligns positively with Lovie’s philosophy. If Lovie’s defense continues to take steps forward and the offensive line improves the Bucs could be playoff bound soon.

Jameis’ Personality Family leans toward the gunslinger mindset and definitely are not ‘game managers’. Ken Stabler threw more INTs (222) than TDs (194) and Brett Farve is the all time leader of throwing INTs (336). Those with high mental makeup correlation to Jameis generally throw lots of picks, almost a 1:1 career ratio. Expect Jameis to throw his share of interceptions. It typically takes 3-5 years for these folks to become solid NFL QBs in which he’ll have his best year for yardage and TD:INT ratio. Based on our analysis thus far his career stats will apex in the middle and trend down on the second half. Unlike others, such as Elway, who peak during the second half of their career.

Risks

On the negative, Jameis shares a first round draft selection with Jason Campbell. Meanwhile Ken Stabler was a 2nd round pick and Bart Starr was drafted very late. The takeaway is that, like many QBs, it is good for these personalities to have to earn their way. Handing the reigns to Jameis too early, combined with his ego/overconfidence, is the primary concern we have. Early high expectations might have been part of Jason Campbell’s undoing. If Jameis becomes uncoachable and or his stats start falling then we know that he was given too much too soon. Year #2 and #3 will be telling. Will we see the focused, take nothing for granted, Jameis or the overly cocky, headstrong Jameis?

At the professional football level these men have already passed all the physical ability tests. The difference between Zach Mettenberger and Tom Brady is desire, work ethic and mental approach to the game. The attitude ‘we haven’t earn anything yet’ is the approach for the coaching staff to take with Jameis. Downplay every win or loss and shift focus to the next game. Take a long term perspective. Don’t get too emotionally high or too low with Jameis. Stay focused on the future and on the end goal, winning the Super Bowl. When he earns trust, reward him with more responsibility. The coaches should let him voice his feedback. A considerate reply will go far with him.

Conclusion

That wraps up the basic Personality Analysis Method for Jameis Winston. He comes from a lineage of successful NFL QBs and the historical success of this Pf/Pt combination is rare. In spite of lacking physical prowess, he has a winning mental makeup for NFL success and the historical precedent to back it up. Combined with the right system, he has the necessary tools to win a Super Bowl. I wish Jameis all the best…and you heard it here first, congrats to Jameis Winston on at least one Super Bowl win.

MP

 

**This publicly available analysis is the basic analysis. This analysis is reduced to protect the player’s personal life and the team. Personality strengths or weaknesses don’t mean that a person is good or bad, just human. Our sole focus is to determine if the player’s personality traits make for a good NFL QB.

Quick Post on Johnny Manziel

Coaches think they can look into Manziel’s head. The NFL Personality Method can. Johnny needs to care about football and his team but his is the sin of indifference and there’s only a little chance that’ll ever change. If he changes it would be because he decided too. In other words – nobody can change his mind or reason with him. It’s a decision he must make.

Manziel’s “Temperament Family” has many good qualities. They are problem solvers and typically don’t take stress too seriously – they are playful. He has the personality tools to become a Super Bowl winning QB but he lacks the morality to use them in service for others. One of his major traits is the trait of indifference. In a healthy manner indifference can keep someone from feeling pressure during a stressful situation. Taken to a negative extreme, it becomes unbridled selfishness and then that person only cares about himself. Thus far this is what we’ve seen from Johnny Football. Johnny is probably tons of fun to hang out with but as it relates to winning a Super Bowl, we have concerns. So far he’s given us the money sign at the draft. Drunkenness and multiple careless off-the-field issues. Although there are some indications this is changing…by and large he hasn’t cared enough about his team, his town, his game, his coaches to be successful. Football is a team sport and the QB must care enough to put in the work, focus and time on and off the field to be successful. Sheer athletic ability alone can win college football games but not in the pros. Johnny needs to grow up, the coaches cannot make him choose maturity. The coaches think putting better football players around him will fix him. It won’t help. What he really needs is maturity. Where will it come from? The external pressure from fans, friends and family or a religious revival – either source could work but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Inside Manziel’s head is a battle between selfish indifference and competitiveness. Luckily he is very competitive and that personality trait is how coaches could ‘force his maturity.’ Don’t easily reward him, give him a small reward but then take that reward away (the expression “dangle the carrot” is appropriate). If he throws 2 or more INTs in a game make him hold a jock strap for a day (as in “he got his jock strap handed to him”). There are few personalities you should humiliate around teammates but this is one. You must force that competitive side of his personality to overcome his selfish and indifferent side. Another idea is have a practice squad QB wear his jersey and take his practice snaps. Tell Manziel he can have his jersey and QB position back when he’s ready to dedicate himself on and off the field. This could force a serious dialogue between him and the coaches. Test him. Push him. Don’t let him get away with anything. Reward him when you get the right results. He will play mental games and if lying serves him, he will lie and then deny lying.

The other big concern are his off the field issues – those alone could sink his NFL career. Make part of his disciple/training to read a chapter of Proverbs each morning. The wisdom in Proverbs could help him mature, if he’s open to it. In the end this indifferent free spirited guy will make his own decisions and hopefully he’ll mature before he ‘Plaxicos’ himself.

In summary the best course of action would be for a team to altogether skip a temperament like his and wait for the ideal.

Note: He personality is a 9MOY-Wa and these struggles are common to them all.

Introduction – The NFL PAM Revolution

What separates a really good NFL QB from a great NFL QB? Or a physically gifted QB from getting outplayed by a less gifted QB? It is the grey matter, the stuff between his ears.


Case in point – Tom Brady. Tom Brady’s 40-yd dash combine time was 5.28 seconds. His combine QB score is the worst of all time.

Yet he has 4 SB wins.

Current player analysis methods do not and can not account for what the NFL PAM can. The NFL Personality Analysis Method categorizes and compares with past QB a players mental makeup. Current NFL methods reply so much on physical (which is important but only half the picture, look at WR C. Patterson) that drafting a team is somewhat of an educated guess. Currently the best of NFL mental analysis includes following Jameis Winston on an airplane flight (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2418276-jameis-winston-the-most-investigated-player-in-nfl-history) and around campus. They hope that they can can look inside his mind. The NFL Personality Analysis Method can and here’s our post on Jameis Winston.

Announced here first, Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady have almost same exact temperament makeup (80% Correlation). Both were known for comebacks in their college careers. Both are clutch and both remain cool under pressure. Look carefully at Tyrod’s tape. In college, Tyrod had one of the most improbable comebacks in VT’s history. The NFL PAM is very high on his future – assuming ego doesn’t turn into overconfidence and he gets a better coach and team around him. Tyrod has the mental tools to be a SB winner, perhaps in the next few years, as long as his desire to improve/compete remains.

This website introduces the NFL PAM method and offers basic analysis and comparison of players. The most basic idea is that there are several families of temperaments. More importantly these temperaments are subdivided into 144 specific types. These groups form the initial and most basic of our analysis. Temperaments can be further subdivided and reported on in detail. Now with the NFL PAM a team could pick the exact type of player it wants. Do you want someone with the same temperament makeup as Tom Brady or Kurt Warner or Joe Montana? Maybe you want someone else, how about Roger Staubach? How about Aaron Rodgers? Knowledge about a player’s mental makeup is key when a team is planning on sinking millions and the future of the franchise on a QB. The NFL Personality Analysis is design to find these guys. If you find them as a UD FA or in the draft at a lower round then you can sink money into your defense and quickly build a winning team. This a similar concept to what’s allowed the Seahawks to be a dominant team.

Have you ever considered that some very talented QBs have been overlooked because we rely so much on physical ability? Kurt Warner was stocking grocery shelves. Tom Brady had his resume ready to job hunt before the NFL draft and the Pats took him in the 6th.

I discovered which QBs win SBs and why. The reason is because they are best mentally equipped to play QB in the NFL and perform under stress. Being able to Identify QBs and compare them to past QB personalities is a literal game-changer for NFL teams.

MP